Although betting on football has been around for decades, penalty betting is a relatively new addition to sportsbooks. With it gaining real popularity during the 2018 World Cup when the Video Assistant Referee was introduced, it is now a market that is here to stay. The VAR is firmly a part of the modern game and the technology offers the ability to award more penalties than before. It also provides you with the opportunity to boost your profits.
You can bet not only on the awarding of penalties but also on their scoring and missing. This ability to predict what a referee or star striker will do has only made football wagering more enjoyable. We will offer you penalty betting tips to form a successful strategy alongside helpful stats such as which leagues have the highest penalty average.
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Most Popular Penalty Betting Markets
When it comes to a penalty awarded bet, there are many different markets to choose from. These include whether one is scored or not or if one will be awarded at all. Add whether both teams will score a penalty, multiple penalties given in a game or even the opening goal comes from 12 yards, and this market is not perhaps as simple as your first thought. Thankfully, this is where we step. We are going to run through each of the primary penalty betting markets by following the most important football betting rules.
✔ Penalty to be awarded Yes/No
In this market, you are betting on whether a penalty will be awarded to either team during a game. When looking at last season’s Premier League statistics, for example, this outcome would occur once every four matches. This means the odds of a referee pointing to the spot are much higher than no penalties. However, if you can make the right decisions at the right time, your penalty betting strategy could be rather profitable.
✔ Penalty to be scored Yes/No
When a referee does point to the penalty spot, a new market comes into play. Here you must decide if a goal is subsequently scored from 12 yards. With 81% of 2021/22’s Premier League penalties being slotted home, the striker will always be favoured over the goalkeeper in this situation. Therefore, the odds for yes are usually a lot shorter than no in this penalty betting market.
✔ First goal from the penalty spot
In order to enhance your football betting options and their meaning, you must learn that a penalty awarded bet is whether the first goal of the game will be scored from the spot. A simple yes or no choice once again, and with the majority of goals coming from open play. However, even though the odds on this market will always be very high, you should steer clear as it will not be profitable in the long run.
✔ Home and away penalty goals
One other way to make penalty betting more interesting is by backing both teams to score from 12 yards. Although this can be considered more of a rarity in football, there are occasions when such an outcome occurs. You can do all the research you want, but, in reality, the probability of this bet coming through is very low. This is why we only suggest small fun wagers.
✔ Multiple Penalties in a Game
While for those who keep a keen eye on referee behaviour, this is the penalty betting option for you. Because if you can find the official who awards the most penalties on average, there is every chance that two or more could be awarded in a single game. Should that be the case and you have backed this outcome, that is where your bet becomes a winner. Multiple penalties is a market that can affect the total cards in a game and especially yellow card betting.
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Where to Bet on Penalties
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There are several things to consider regarding this particular market. Like always, you will want to find the football bookmakers who offer the best odds for a penalty awarded bet. Not only that, but you will want to look out for the variations of wagering options available. Add the ability to place a penalty bet within a bet builder, which will only enhance the sportsbook. Without further ado, here is a list of the best sites for penalty betting.
Best Strategies to Place a Winning Penalty Awarded Bet
Like all other markets, doing your research beforehand is highly recommended. If this is part of your penalty betting strategy, it will help your attempt at making long-term profits. Because the more you know about the markets, the smarter bets you will make; ergo, you have a better chance of winning. In this section, we are going to highlight the key aspects to consider introducing the best football betting techniques to win via penalties.
Penalty Probability
Perhaps the most important thing when building your strategy is how often penalties are awarded in each competition. If you know a league has less on average than another, it may be one to avoid. For example, here is how the average penalties per game differed across the major leagues during the 2021/22 season:
League Matches Penalties Average Serie A 380 142 0.37 La Liga 380 133 0.35 Ligue 1 380 122 0.32 Bundesliga 306 84 0.27 Premier League 380 103 0.27
As you can see, there are more penalties on average in Serie A and La Liga, which is certainly something to take into account when looking to bet on penalties.
Follow the referees
Another thing to consider before placing a penalty awarded bet is the behaviour of referees. Are they more likely to award them, or do they prepare to let the game flow with fewer interruptions? Knowing the answer to this can also help from a strategy-building point of view. For example, here are the stats from the 2021/22 Premier League season:
Referee Matches Pen Per Game Darren England 15 0.53 Robert Jones 12 0.42 Kevin Friend 18 0.39
Here, we can see the top three referees when it comes to average penalties per game in charge. This means when this trio oversees an EPL match, the opportunity of a penalty being awarded increases. While to offer a comparison, here are the top three for the 2021/22 La Liga season:
Referee Matches Pen Per Game Jesus Gil Manzano 20 0.50 Valentin Pizarro Gomez 18 0.50 R. deB. Bengoetxea 19 0.47
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As you can see, the highest average is in the Premier League, the rate of penalties is more consistent in La Liga. When either of the three above is in charge, they award a foul in the area once every other game.
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Prefer matches with VAR
The introduction of VAR in the past few years has meant that penalty betting has become even more popular, especially in leagues that have introduced the technology. VAR betting is prominent among players because it usually leads to more penalties being awarded, which is highlighted in the table below.
League Matches Penalties Average La Liga 2017/18 – No VAR 380 113 0.29 La Liga 2018/19 – With VAR 380 130 0.34
As you can see, in the first season that Spain’s La Liga introduced VAR, there were a total of 17 more penalties compared to the season before.
Team motivation
When looking at penalty betting tips, whether a team has lots at stake before the game is crucial. For example, they may be chasing goals in order to avoid relegation or win the league. This, in turn, could lead to a more aggressive brand of football, and when there is aggressiveness on the field, the award of a penalty is never too far away.
Performance gap
The last part of your penalty betting strategy should be the gap in quality between the two teams. If there is a huge gulf, it could mean plenty of attacking football for the better side. This means if there are plenty of attacking opportunities for the better of the two teams, it will also increase the likelihood of a winning penalty awarded bet and this is something else that you should take into consideration.
A perfect example of this would be when Manchester City play against Norwich in the Premier League. With City known for their attacking brand of football, this would certainly lead to more possession in the opposition penalty area. This provides more opportunities for the Premier League giants to be fouled in the box.
Full List of Bookmakers for Penalty Betting
For those still wondering whether to place a penalty awarded bet is worth the time and effort. Hopefully, our guide has convinced you that it is. If you use our tips above to create your strategy, there is no reason why you cannot build a bankroll of your own. Because if you combine them with your detailed research, it will put you in a far better position than before. While now that you are armed with all the information you require, here is our complete list of penalty betting bookmakers.
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